(CNN) -- It's that time again, time to pull out the
ballots and read the tea leaves and see who's going to take home the
trophies at Sunday's 86th Academy Awards.
Will it be "12 Years a Slave"? Leonardo DiCaprio? "Let It Go" from "Frozen"?
Oscar forecasting is a
lighthearted parlor game for many and a "who cares" shrug for others.
(Go ahead, commenters, let us know how you really feel!)
But to studios, agents,
managers and many of the nominees, winning the Oscar is not only
first-line-of-the-obituary recognition, but it also means "cold, hard
cash," as Oscar winner Wendy Hiller once bluntly put it, in box-office receipts and future contracts.
With that in mind -- and
with the possibility of some of this article's readers taking home cold,
hard cash for winning their Oscar pools -- here are a few key
indicators to follow at the 2014 Oscars Sunday night. Of course, the
Oscars being the Oscars, nothing is guaranteed.
What are the best picture front-runners?
There may be nine
nominees for best picture, but only three have a good chance of winning,
says Tom O'Neil of the awards handicapping site GoldDerby.com:
"12 Years a Slave," "Gravity" and "American Hustle." "12 Years" is the
favorite among his 30 experts, with "Gravity" second at 10-3 odds and
"Hustle" at 50-1. Everything else is 100-1.
The site TheCredits.org agrees.
Its social awards season app, DataViz, crunched the numbers based on
mentions on Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest and film-related sites. It
determined that "12 Years" has 42% of the online mentions (as of
February 24) and "Gravity" is second with 33%.
But, points out Clayton Davis of AwardsCircuit.com, in a year with divisive choices -- and "12 Years," though widely hailed, is not necessarily widely loved -- the preferential voting system for best picture
can favor everybody's second choice. That's "Gravity," which also has
the benefit of being the people's choice as the highest-grossing film
among the nominees.
Film editing is your friend
Of course, best picture is the last category of the night. What are some of the early signs that one of these films has an edge?
The film editing
category may seem minor to Oscar viewers, but it often has an outsized
role in showcasing best picture winners. O'Neil observes that the best
picture has won the editing Oscar more than half the time -- and if you
rule out action-oriented flicks such as "Bullitt," "Star Wars" and "The
Bourne Ultimatum," it's even more predictive.
This year's editing
nominees include all three best picture front-runners along with
"Captain Phillips," directed by the handheld-camera-favoring,
quick-cutting Paul Greengrass, and "Dallas Buyers Club." "Gravity" is
the favorite, says O'Neil, and that could foretell a spacey night. But
even more notable will be if "12 Years" or "Hustle" grabs the trophy,
since a win would be so unexpected. As for "Phillips," that would simply
acknowledge the expertise of Greengrass and editor Christopher Rouse --
who won for "Ultimatum" six years ago.
Pressing the flesh
Though overt Oscar
campaigning is frowned upon, there's nothing wrong with showing up at
industry functions, saying the right things, posing for pictures and
shaking a few hands.
That could make a
difference in the best actor category, whose favorites are Matthew
McConaughey ("Dallas Buyers Club") and Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Wolf of
Wall Street").
Though both have some high-profile wins, they have yet to face off in the same category. (Both won Golden Globes,
but McConaughey's was for a drama and DiCaprio's was for comedy.) And
when it comes to politicking, DiCaprio has played the game well, says
O'Neil, who points out that the "Wolf" star has been making the rounds
with humor and class.
"When I look at the list
of past winners of best actor, I see movie stars," he says. "There's
kind of a veteran glow to it. With Leo being overdue, it's to his
advantage -- and he's given the biggest performance of his career in the
most talked-about movie of the year."
But McConaughey may have a secret weapon. No, not his extreme weight loss. Try "True Detective" on HBO, which has become an addictive hit.
"(One academy member) told me he's voting for McConaughey because he's addicted to 'True Detective,' " says O'Neil.
Technically speaking
"Gravity" is up for
several technical awards, including production design, sound editing,
sound mixing and visual effects. It's considered the front-runner for
most of them. If it falters, it could be a long night for director
Alfonso Cuaron and his film.
"If you see 'Gravity' lose some techs, it's indicative that it's not going all the way," says Davis.
A 'Slave' surprise
"12 Years a Slave" has
fewer technical nominations but has a number of acting nods: best actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, best supporting actor Michael Fassbender and best
supporting actress Lupita Nyong'o. Only Nyong'o is given a strong shot
to win -- she's the top pick of GoldDerby's experts -- but if Fassbender
and Ejiofor triumph, expect "Slave" to take it all.
Fassbender has the
toughest road, says O'Neil. The academy has softened up about giving
Oscars for villainous roles, but there's usually a wink involved --
think Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds" or even Anthony Hopkins
in "The Silence of the Lambs." Not so for Fassbender's character, a
vicious slave owner.
"He's pure Satan," says O'Neil.
Do the "Hustle"
"American Hustle" did
even better among the major categories -- it's the only film nominated
in the Big Six of picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor
and supporting actress. But of all the film's nominees, only Jennifer
Lawrence -- who's won a Globe and a SAG Award, and who's the most
popular actress in the world right now -- is considered a threat in her
category, best supporting actress.
The key is probably Amy
Adams, up for best actress. That category is considered a runaway for
Cate Blanchett of "Blue Jasmine," but if the Woody Allen controversy
has rubbed off on her, five-time nominee Adams could take the Oscar and
indicate bigger things for the film about the '70s Abscam scandal.
Davis is doubtful, though. Even the Seahawks gave up a touchdown during the Super Bowl, he says.
"I'm sure she'll lose a couple votes, but not enough to matter," he says.
Watch Weinstein
Producer Harvey
Weinstein is the master of awards gamesmanship. He makes high-quality,
often audience-friendly films with good casts -- "Shakespeare in Love,"
"The Artist," Quentin Tarantino's films -- and he knows how to promote
them.
This year he's putting
his chips on his best picture nominee, "Philomena." The film has earned
good reviews, done respectable box office and features the ageless Judi
Dench. It has a good shot at adapted screenplay, which was co-written by
star Steve Coogan, and Dench is a seven-time nominee who's won once
before.
Along with Martin
Scorsese's "The Wolf of Wall Street," it's probably the leading dark
horse -- but whereas "Wolf" is divisive, "Philomena" is liked.
O'Neil thinks screenplay is possible -- "sometimes the most emotional movie wins" -- but thinks that might be it.
Still, at least
"Philomena" picked up a best picture nomination. Weinstein's other major
film, "August: Osage County," didn't even get that.
Splitting tickets
Finally, this is an odd
handicapping year. Usually the best director has directed the best
picture, but this year the handicappers are picking "Gravity's" Cuaron
for best director and "12 Years a Slave" for best picture. When the two
categories differ, it's a surprise, not an expectation.
Davis can't shake the
feeling that voters won't split their votes -- and that will make
"Gravity" the big winner. (Sorry, "12 Years" director Steve McQueen.)
Cuaron not only won the top award from the Directors Guild, but
"Gravity" also tied "12 Years" as the best film picked by the Producers
Guild -- which, given the PGA's use of the preferential ballot, was an incredible shocker.
And O'Neil suggests another indicator: "Gravity" star Sandra Bullock, who's up for best actress.
"If 'Gravity' wins best picture, Sandra might go along for the rocket ride," he says. "She is 'Gravity' -- she's the whole movie."
One sure thing?
This won't predict the best picture winner, but if you're looking to check off a category on your Oscar ballot,
look no further than "The Lady in Number 6: 'Music Saved My Life'," a
documentary short subject about a Holocaust survivor who lived to be
110. As Mark Harris noted in Grantland, she died Sunday -- two days before Oscar voting ended. Harris sums it up: "We're done here."
Dominoes and randomness
A lot of the foregoing,
of course, assumes the Oscars are logical. Let us emphasize: The Oscars
are not logical. They are a popularity contest, a business proposition, a
plea for attention, a throw of a dart.
Sometimes films gather momentum like so many falling dominoes, as "Argo" did last year.
Other times big favorites fall short at the end: 1976's "Network" won
three of four acting categories but lost best picture to "Rocky"; 1972's
"Cabaret" took home eight Oscars -- including best director -- but lost
best picture to "The Godfather."
And if you need any more
proof that the Oscar universe can be as random as a roll of the dice,
consider two words: Roberto Benigni.
Good luck in your pool.
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